What to Expect from HTML5 in 2013

It's December and predictions season in the tech world, so let's look at what 2013 will mean for HTML5.

2011 saw breathless pronouncements about how HTML5 would dominate the next 12 months, along with predictions that developers would overwhelmingly abandon Flash in favor of HTML5's "write once, run everywhere" approach.

While 2012 was quite not the year analysts and HTML5 supporters expected, organizations showed definite interest and demonstrated success. In 2013, it's certain that the new Web standard will continue to grow and attract support.

Faster and Cheaper Development, in Theory
HTML5 promises shorter development times and cheaper development costs. Since HTML5 applications essentially live in the Web browser, developers (theoretically) don't have to worry about starting from scratch when developing for mobile platforms such as Android and iOS.

It hasn't turned out to be all that straightforward.

Developers still have to tweak the application for mobile devices, but more to optimize existing code rather than starting fresh. Mobile developers may also be interested in HTML5 because it lets them circumvent app stores and still reach closed platforms such as iOS, Facebook and Xbox Live.

When Facebook abandoned HTML5 for its mobile app earlier this year, detractors pointed to CEO Marc Zuckerberg's statement: "I think the biggest mistake we made as a company is betting too much on HTML5 as opposed to native" as proof that HTML5 was just hype. Later reports made clear, however, that the problem wasn't so much that HTML5 could not deliver what Facebook needed, but that its team didn't have the expertise to accomplish its goals.

High-Profile Successes
Nonetheless, 2012 saw definite HTML5 successes too. Financial Times successfully shifted its Web platform to HTML5. Amazon uses HTML5 in its Kindle Cloud Reader, Amazon AppStore for Android, Amazon MP3 Player, Amazon Mobile, Kindle for Windows 8 and Dictionary Lookup on eInk Kindles, Ethan Evans, director of app developer services at Amazon, explained in his keynote speech at AnDevCon earlier this month. That Amazon could dynamically update its app without having to go through the app store outweighed some of the performance challenges, Evans said.

Growing Mobile Security Concerns
Yet the promise of cross-platform compatibility is a double-edged sword. Security experts warn that cyber-criminals can also take advantage of the ability to target multiple platforms with the same code. The top three platforms hackers will target in 2013 are Windows 8, Android, and iOS, according to Websense Security Labs, adding that cross-platform exploits designed in HTML5 and Java will make the attacks easier.

"Cybercriminals operate toward similar objectives as legitimate application developers and focus on the most profitable platforms. As development barriers are removed, mobile threats will be able to leverage a huge library of shared code," Websense recently warned.

Bright Mobile Future for HTML5
HTML5 still makes sense for mobile, as mobile devices become more ubiquitous; analysts predict more growth. Research firm Strategy Analytics forecasts that one billion HTML5-capable mobile devices will be sold in 2013. ABI Research sees more than 2.1 billion mobile devices with HTML5 browsers by 2016. IDC estimates over 80 percent of all mobile apps will be wholly or in part based upon HTML5 by 2015. The firm also predicts 2 million developers working with HTML5 in 2013.

In 2012, an estimated 109 million phones had browsers capable of running HTML5 applications in 2010 (ABI) or 336 million in 2011 (Strategy Analytics). Either way, that's a lot of potential growth. With Flash out of the way, HTML5 has plenty of room to grow.

At this year's Black Hat security conference, several researchers demonstrated how HTML5 opens up new vectors for attack of because it has extensive access to local data stores, services and applications. As more and more developers start working with HTML5, it's important they learn how to build the application securely.

As the new year approaches, excitement still surrounds HTML5. Even those who admit the technology may have been overhyped are still committed to improving the tools and encouraging adoption.

With 2013 right around the corner, I would like to know what you think. Are you working with HTML5? Do you still think it is not ready for prime time? Will we see HTML5-based attacks in 2013? Weigh in below.

by Fahmida Y. Rashid 

About the Author
Fahmida Y. Rashid is a contributing editor for Slashdot and SourceForge.